When Craig Counsell, manager of Milwaukee Brewers stepped onto the dugout at American Family Field on October 11, 2025, the air was electric. The Game 5 of the National League Division Series (NLDS) was about to decide which of the two Central rivals would move on to the NL Championship Series. The matchup was broadcast live on TBS, with the first pitch slated for 8:08 p.m. Eastern.
Series Overview: Tied and Ten‑to‑One
The best‑of‑five series was dead‑locked at 2‑2 after four roller‑coaster games. The Cubs shocked the Brewers with a 6‑0 shutout in Game 4, forcing a winner‑take‑all showdown. Yet all the betting lines still favored Milwaukee. Bookmakers listed the Brewers at -130 on the moneyline, with a few sites offering -141. The over/under sat at 7.5 runs, and roughly 79% of the public money backed the home side.
Brewers’ 2025 Campaign: Power, Speed, and a Bullpen That Bites
The Milwaukee Brewers closed the regular season 97‑65, posting a monster 52‑29 record at home. They ranked in the top three MLB-wide for runs per game (5.4), hits per game (9.2), stolen bases (110), and on‑base percentage (.352). Their bullpen was a revelation: sixth in ERA (3.24), fourth in expected ERA (2.97), fifth in FIP (3.10), and fifth in WAR among relievers.
In the ten games leading up to Game 5, Milwaukee’s offense cooled a bit, averaging just 3.5 runs while allowing 4.1. Still, even a modest outburst could swing the series, especially with the home‑field advantage that has favored the host in every game so far.
Cubs’ Road to the Decider: Resilience Meets Reliever Woes
The Chicago Cubs finished 92‑70, going 42‑39 on the road. Their offense was solid, hitting .274 as a team, but the relief corps lagged behind the Brewers, ranking eleventh or worse in ERA, xERA, FIP, and WAR. The 6‑0 win in Game 4 was a high‑water mark, yet their bullpen’s inconsistency remains a concern.
Behind the bench, David Ross, manager of the Cubs, emphasized the need for patience. “We’ve been in tight spots before,” Ross said on the pre‑game call. “If we can get quick outs early, the game opens up for us.”
Bullpen‑Only Strategy: A Tactical Chess Match
Both clubs announced a bullpen‑only plan for the decisive game – no traditional starter. Milwaukee will likely lean on closer Josh Hader, who posted a 1.85 ERA in September, while Chicago may turn to left‑hander Adbert Alzolay, who struggled with a 4.60 ERA this season.
Analysts point out that Brewers relievers have generated 1.1 wins above replacement per 9 innings, compared with the Cubs’ 0.4. The statistical edge, combined with the comfort of pitching in front of a home crowd, makes the Milwaukee bullpen the clear favorite.
Betting Trends and Public Sentiment
Historical data supports the odds. In the last six home games against Chicago, Milwaukee has scored over 2.5 runs in each outing. The over 5.5 runs line has attracted a lot of action, reflecting both teams’ ability to light the scoreboard.
- Moneyline: Brewers -130 (average -135 across sportsbooks)
- Run line: Brewers -1.5
- Over/Under: 7.5 runs
- Public betting split: 79% on Brewers, 21% on Cubs
- Recent form: Brewers 4‑6 in last 10, Cubs 5‑5
Oddsmakers also note a pattern: the home team has won each of the first four games in this series. “It’s a weird streak, but patterns matter in baseball,” said Mike Axford of ESPN.
What’s at Stake: The Road to the NLCS
The winner advances to face the victor of the NL West in the NL Championship Series, likely the Los Angeles Dodgers or Arizona Diamondbacks, depending on their own playoffs. For Milwaukee, a win would cement a season that began with a mid‑season rebuild and turn it into a postseason breakthrough. For Chicago, a victory would be a morale‑boosting end to a year that saw them finally snap a five‑year playoff drought.
Historical Head‑to‑Head Context
All‑time, the Brewers lead the rivalry 85‑76, with 42 of those wins at home. At American Family Field, Milwaukee has taken five of the last six meetings, each by at least four runs. In those games, the home side has averaged 4.41 runs, while visitors have managed exactly 4.0.
These numbers underscore why the betting market tilts heavily toward the Brewers. Yet baseball is a game of moments, and the Cubs’ 6‑0 blast in Game 4 proves that a single pitch can rewrite the script.
Key Facts
- Event: NLDS Game 5American Family Field
- Date & Time: October 11, 2025, 8:08 p.m. ET
- Broadcast: TBS
- Moneyline: Brewers -130, Cubs +110
- Run Line: Brewers -1.5
- Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Looking Ahead
Regardless of the outcome, the series will be remembered for its strategic gamble—two teams opting for a pure bullpen showdown. If Milwaukee’s relievers execute as their numbers suggest, a 5‑4 win could send them to the NLCS. If Chicago times its outs and capitalizes on a few early mistakes, the Cubs could pull off a historic upset.
Fans will be glued to the screen, waiting to see whether the home‑field advantage and a dominant bullpen are enough to end the NLDS in a classic Wisconsin autumn.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this game affect the Brewers’ postseason prospects?
A win pushes Milwaukee into the NL Championship Series, where they would likely face the NL West champion. Advancing keeps their momentum alive after a season that featured a league‑best home record and one of the top bullpens in baseball.
What are the key factors that could swing the game in Chicago’s favor?
Early runs, disciplined plate appearances, and a timely defensive play could neutralize the Brewers’ bullpen advantage. If Alzolay can keep the game low‑scoring and the Cubs’ offense finds a rhythm quickly, an upset is plausible.
Why are betting markets favoring the Brewers despite recent offensive struggles?
The odds reflect the Brewers’ superior relievers, a 52‑29 home record, and a five‑game home‑win streak against the Cubs. Even with a dip in scoring, the statistical edge of the bullpen and home‑field trends outweigh short‑term offensive variance.
What does a bullpen‑only strategy mean for the pace of the game?
Expect more frequent pitching changes and shorter innings. Managers will likely pattern match, bringing in specialists for left‑handed or right‑handed hitters, which can create a faster, more tactical flow compared to a traditional starter‑heavy game.
If the Cubs win, how might that impact the NL West champion?
A Chicago victory would set up a NLCS clash with the West winner, likely the Dodgers. The Cubs would bring momentum and a potent offense into that series, forcing the West champion to adjust to a team that proved it can dominate a strong bullpen under pressure.